Architecture-Based Reliability Analysis with Uncertain Parameters

Derek Doran, Matthew Tran, Lance Fiondella, Swapna S. Gokhale

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

Architecture-based reliability analysis has gained prominence in the recent years as a way to predict the reliability of a software application during the design phase, before an investment is made in any implementation. To apply this analysis, the parameters comprising the architectural model must be estimated using the limited data and knowledge available during the design phase. These estimates, as a result, are inherently uncertain. Contemporary approaches, however, do not consider these uncertainties, and hence, may produce inaccurate reliability results. This paper presents a Bayesian approach to systematically consider parametric uncertainties in architecture-based analysis. The novelty of this approach lies in determining credible intervals for the model parameters as a function of their posterior distributions. By leveraging these intervals, we illustrate how to: (i) quantify the impact of uncertainty in a specific parameter on the system reliability estimate; (ii) evaluate when a sufficient amount of data has been collected to reduce the uncertainty to an acceptable level; and (iii) assess the impact of prior knowledge regarding the parameters in improving the system reliability estimate.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 23rd International Conference on Software Engineering and Knowledge Engineering
Pages629-634
Number of pages6
StatePublished - 2011
Event23rd International Conference on Software Engineering and Knowledge Engineering - Miami, FL, United States
Duration: Jul 7 2011Jul 9 2011

Conference

Conference23rd International Conference on Software Engineering and Knowledge Engineering
Country/TerritoryUnited States
CityMiami, FL
Period7/7/117/9/11

ASJC Scopus Subject Areas

  • Software

Keywords

  • Architectural models
  • Bayesian approaches
  • Design phase
  • Limited data
  • Model parameters
  • Parametric uncertainties
  • Estimation
  • Knowledge engineering
  • Software engineering
  • Software reliability
  • Uncertainty analysis

Disciplines

  • Software Engineering

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