Detecting Structure in Activity Sequences: Exploring the Hot Hand Phenomenon

Taleri Hammack, John Flach, Joseph Houpt

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

Can humans discriminate whether strings of events (e.g., shooting success in basketball) were generated by a random or constrained process (e.g., hot and cold streaks)? Conventional wisdom suggests that humans are not good at this discrimination. For example, Kahneman (2011) writes that “the hot hand is entirely in the eye of the beholders, who are consistently too quick to perceive order and causality in randomness. The hot hand is a massive and widespread cognitive illusion” (p. 117). Following from Cooper, Hammack, Lemasters, and Flach (2014), a series of Monte Carlo simulations and empirical experiments examined the abilities of both humans and statistical tests (Wald-Wolfowitz Runs Test and 1/f) to detect specific constraints that are representative of plausible factors that might influence the performance of athletes (e.g., learning, non-stationary task constraints).
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication2015 International Annual Meeting of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society, HFES 2015
PublisherHuman Factors and Ergonomics Society Inc.
Pages846-849
Number of pages4
Volume59
ISBN (Electronic)9780945289470
DOIs
StatePublished - 2015
Event59th International Annual Meeting of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society, HFES 2015 - Los Angeles, United States
Duration: Oct 26 2015Oct 30 2015

Publication series

NameProceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society
Volume2015-January
ISSN (Print)1071-1813

Conference

Conference59th International Annual Meeting of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society, HFES 2015
Country/TerritoryUnited States
CityLos Angeles
Period10/26/1510/30/15

ASJC Scopus Subject Areas

  • Human Factors and Ergonomics

Keywords

  • Basketball
  • Erogonomics
  • Monte Carlo methods
  • Palmprint recognition

Disciplines

  • Human Factors Psychology
  • Engineering

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