Model Estimates Hurricane Wind Speed Probabilities

Richard J. Murnane; Christopher C. Barton; Eric Collins; Jeffrey Donnelly; James Elsner; Kerry Emanuel; Isaac Ginis; Susan Howard; Chris Landsea; Kam-bui Liu; David Malmquist; Megan McKay; Anthony Michaels; Norm Nelson; James O'Brien; David Scott; Thompson Webb

doi:10.1029/00EO00319

Model Estimates Hurricane Wind Speed Probabilities

Richard J. Murnane, Christopher C. Barton, Eric Collins, Jeffrey Donnelly, James Elsner, Kerry Emanuel, Isaac Ginis, Susan Howard, Chris Landsea, Kam-bui Liu, David Malmquist, Megan McKay, Anthony Michaels, Norm Nelson, James O'Brien, David Scott, Thompson Webb

Wright State University

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

In the United States, intense hurricanes (category 3, 4, and 5 on the Saffir/Simpson scale) with winds greater than 50 m s ⁻¹ have caused more damage than any other natural disaster [ Pielke and Pielke , 1997]. Accurate estimates of wind speed exceedance probabilities (WSEP) due to intense hurricanes are therefore of great interest to (re)insurers, emergency planners, government officials, and populations in vulnerable coastal areas.

The historical record of U.S. hurricane landfall is relatively complete only from about 1900, and most model estimates of WSEP are derived from this record. During the 1899–1998 period, only two category-5 and 16 category-4 hurricanes made landfall in the United States. The historical record therefore provides only a limited sample of the most intense hurricanes.

Original language	American English
Journal	Eos, Transactions of the American Geophysical Union
Volume	81
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/00EO00319
State	Published - Sep 1 2000

Disciplines

Earth Sciences
Environmental Sciences
Physical Sciences and Mathematics

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10.1029/00EO00319License: Unspecified

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/00EO00319/abstract

Cite this

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title = "Model Estimates Hurricane Wind Speed Probabilities",

abstract = " In the United States, intense hurricanes (category 3, 4, and 5 on the Saffir/Simpson scale) with winds greater than 50 m s −1 have caused more damage than any other natural disaster [ Pielke and Pielke , 1997]. Accurate estimates of wind speed exceedance probabilities (WSEP) due to intense hurricanes are therefore of great interest to (re)insurers, emergency planners, government officials, and populations in vulnerable coastal areas. The historical record of U.S. hurricane landfall is relatively complete only from about 1900, and most model estimates of WSEP are derived from this record. During the 1899–1998 period, only two category-5 and 16 category-4 hurricanes made landfall in the United States. The historical record therefore provides only a limited sample of the most intense hurricanes.",

author = "Murnane, {Richard J.} and Barton, {Christopher C.} and Eric Collins and Jeffrey Donnelly and James Elsner and Kerry Emanuel and Isaac Ginis and Susan Howard and Chris Landsea and Kam-bui Liu and David Malmquist and Megan McKay and Anthony Michaels and Norm Nelson and James O'Brien and David Scott and Thompson Webb",

year = "2000",

month = sep,

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doi = "10.1029/00EO00319",

language = "American English",

volume = "81",

journal = "Eos, Transactions of the American Geophysical Union",

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TY - JOUR

T1 - Model Estimates Hurricane Wind Speed Probabilities

AU - Murnane, Richard J.

AU - Barton, Christopher C.

AU - Collins, Eric

AU - Donnelly, Jeffrey

AU - Elsner, James

AU - Emanuel, Kerry

AU - Ginis, Isaac

AU - Howard, Susan

AU - Landsea, Chris

AU - Liu, Kam-bui

AU - Malmquist, David

AU - McKay, Megan

AU - Michaels, Anthony

AU - Nelson, Norm

AU - O'Brien, James

AU - Scott, David

AU - Webb, Thompson

PY - 2000/9/1

Y1 - 2000/9/1

N2 - In the United States, intense hurricanes (category 3, 4, and 5 on the Saffir/Simpson scale) with winds greater than 50 m s −1 have caused more damage than any other natural disaster [ Pielke and Pielke , 1997]. Accurate estimates of wind speed exceedance probabilities (WSEP) due to intense hurricanes are therefore of great interest to (re)insurers, emergency planners, government officials, and populations in vulnerable coastal areas. The historical record of U.S. hurricane landfall is relatively complete only from about 1900, and most model estimates of WSEP are derived from this record. During the 1899–1998 period, only two category-5 and 16 category-4 hurricanes made landfall in the United States. The historical record therefore provides only a limited sample of the most intense hurricanes.

AB - In the United States, intense hurricanes (category 3, 4, and 5 on the Saffir/Simpson scale) with winds greater than 50 m s −1 have caused more damage than any other natural disaster [ Pielke and Pielke , 1997]. Accurate estimates of wind speed exceedance probabilities (WSEP) due to intense hurricanes are therefore of great interest to (re)insurers, emergency planners, government officials, and populations in vulnerable coastal areas. The historical record of U.S. hurricane landfall is relatively complete only from about 1900, and most model estimates of WSEP are derived from this record. During the 1899–1998 period, only two category-5 and 16 category-4 hurricanes made landfall in the United States. The historical record therefore provides only a limited sample of the most intense hurricanes.

UR - https://corescholar.libraries.wright.edu/ees/119

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U2 - 10.1029/00EO00319

DO - 10.1029/00EO00319

M3 - Article

VL - 81

JO - Eos, Transactions of the American Geophysical Union

JF - Eos, Transactions of the American Geophysical Union

ER -

Model Estimates Hurricane Wind Speed Probabilities

Abstract

Disciplines

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